A spike in the gold price to a record US$3700 an ounce immediately after the U.S. central bank shaved 0.25% off its benchmark rates to a range of 4% to 4.25% was quickly followed by a US$33/oz dive back to US$3667/oz.

With more rate cuts forecast, the next move by gold could set the scene for the year ahead as investors judge whether there’s more mileage in the metal or whether it’s ready for a rest, and possible retreat after a stellar three year run.

It’s a different story with copper, which appears poised to rise with demand and more deals to follow the US$50 billion copper-driven merger of Anglo American and Teck Resources, and news that the Qatar sovereign wealth fund has just paid US$500 million for a 4% stake in Ivanhoe Mines.

The corporate deals follow the latest upbeat copper market report from leading investment bank Citi which told clients that while the metal faced residual headwinds the groundwork is being laid for a price rise from its current US$10,000 a tonne to a possible bull case next year of US$13,000/t.

“A more constructive cyclical demand backdrop for 2026, including the U.S. Federal Reserve rate cutting cycle, fiscal expansion, European rearmament, energy transition and AI (artificial intelligence) demand point to the emergence of physical copper deficit from next year,” Citi said.

Locally, the copper sector saw Orion Minerals rise by 0.6c (47%) to 1.9c after signing a funding deal with mining and commodity-trading giant Glencore for the next stages of work at its Prieska mine in South Africa.

Other small Australian copper stocks also did well and, interestingly, outperformed their bigger cousins in what could be a sign that investors are diving deeper into listed companies, seeking out bargains in the basement with moves this week that included:

  • Cygnus Metals, up 1.3c to 11c after reporting a resource increase at its Chibougamau project in Canada to 6.4 million tonnes of material at 3% copper equivalent. CG Capital Markets reckons Cygnus is heading up to 30c.
  • Midas Metals, up 2c to 43c after receiving firm commitments for an $11.5 million placement to advance its Otavi project in Namibia.
  • Belararox, up 0.3c to 9.4c after raising $8.5 million to accelerate work on its African and South American copper projects. At one stage midweek the stock traded up to a high of 11.5c, and
  • Aeris, up 3c to 36c as interest grows in its copper and gold portfolio. The stock hit a 12-month high on Wednesday of 37c.

Those upward moves by emerging copper stocks overshadowed a 5c slide by mid-cap copper producer Sandfire to $12.44.

As well as hunting out small copper stocks, investors were quick to pounce on good news stocks in other sectors with solid moves that included:

  • Rapid Critical Metals, up 3c to 5.3c after raising $14 million to acquire the Webbs Consol silver project in NSW. Funding came from some of the best known players in mine funding, including Tribeca, Jupiter, and Eric Sprott.
  • Locksley Resources, up 23c (62%) to 60c after announcing an expanded exploration effort for antimony in the Mojave Desert of California.
  • ABX up 2c to 7.9c after announcing encouraging heavy rare earth extraction from Deep Leads project in Tasmania, and
  • Liontown, up 12c to 92c as interest builds again in the lithium sector.

Increased activity at the small end of the copper and gold markets sat comfortably alongside comments from Bell Direct senior analyst Grady Wulff at the Resources Rising Stars conference on the Gold Coast.

“Investors are increasingly looking at the small to mid-cap space,” Wulff said.

“Every week we see our clients moving more into the small opportunities in the market, as opposed to banks, coal stocks and cryptocurrency. So, what that says to us is that risk is back on.”

A similar theme of rotating back to small stocks emerged at investment conferences in the U.S.

Ronnie Stoferle from the Lichtenstein based investment house Incrementum told the Mining Forum America in Colorado Springs there will also be a switch in the gold market as investors increase their exposure to mining companies while reducing their exposure to bullion.

“Gold has had a great run and I think it will continue,” Stoferle said. “But now is the point when gold and silver mining stocks really start outperforming.”

Local gold moves and news this week included:

  • Leaders Northern Star and Evolution down 44c to $20.50, and 11c to $9.21, respectively.
  • New look Alkane, after its merger with Mandalay Resources, down 2c at $1.02.
  • Magnetic Resources down 6c at $1.30 despite progress at its Lady Julie project in WA and a buy tip with $3.98 price target from Shaw and Partners.
  • Tesoro Gold, up 1c at 5.8c with Morgans setting a 21c price target after telling clients that the company’s Temera project in Chile is a “belter”, and
  • Medallion Medals, down 1c at 45c despite reporting progress at its Ravensthorpe project in WA. CG Capital Markets has a target of 80c on the stock.

Lithium, as seen in the sharp rise by Liontown, received its boost from reports that Middle East sovereign wealth funds were eyeing the Australian mining sector as part of a global diversification process.

Pilbara Minerals followed Liontown up with its own rise of 29c to $2.32. Independence put on 50c at $4.84 and Minerals Resources rose by $2.09 to $38.59 with its iron ore assets helping with the lift.

Other iron ore stocks rose with the price of their mineral, which remains above US$100 a tonne, though for how long has become an interesting question.

Fortescue added 7c this week to $18.77, Champion Iron was up 8c at $4.65 and Fenix, the local small player in the sector, added another 3c to 42c.

Other news and market moves of interest this week included:

  • Uranium stocks moving up sharply on reports of small nuclear reactor developments in the U.S. and U.K. Paladin rose by 33c to $8.08. Deep Yellow was up 9c to $1.98 and Boss added 25c at $2.
  • Sunrise Energy Metals which is developing the Syerston scandium project in NSW, jumped by $1.60 to $4.10 thanks to a funding proposal from a U.S. Government agency.
  • Stellar Resources added 0.4c to 2.5c after reporting encouraging exploration news from its Heemskirk tin project in Tasmania.
  • Nickel Industries put on 2.5c to 72c despite ongoing Indonesia oversupply of the metal, and
  • Develop Global rose by 27c to $3.78 after its MD, Bill Beament, delivered a well-received presentation to the Resources Rising Stars conference.