BHP has long been doing the heavy lifting on alerting the market to the bullish outlook for copper.

It has been sending out regular alerts for years on the need for higher/incentive pricing for copper if a looming supply deficit of as much 10mtpa by 2035 – the equivalent of 10 new mines the size of the world’s biggest copper mine, the BHP-managed Escondida – is to be addressed.

While it stuffed up on nickel, it certainly got copper right, with the red metal continuing in record territory of US$6.15/lb compared with its CY2025 average of US$4.51/lb and its CY2024 average of US$4.15/lb.

Copper’s performance has been a key factor in BHP shares now trading in record territory with a $60 a share-plus handle, and why copper overtook iron ore as its main profit earner in the December half year.

That kind of happens when a company is producing some 4.2 billion pounds of copper annually.

But if it is leverage to copper’s new paradigm that investors want, BHP’s diversified model doesn’t match it with the ASX-listed copper plays. After all, BHP’s earnings remain highly leveraged to iron ore, and its coming potash push. 

Apart from Sandfire, which has zinc-laden copper production from mines in Spain and Africa, there is not much left on the ASX that could be described as immediately investable in that annual production is something north of 50,000tpa.

It is why those that have a real shot at joining the 50,000tpa copper club are generally well supported.

The prime example of that is Steve Parson’s FireFly Metals (ASX:FFM) which has grown from a $100m market cap to a $1.51 billion market cap since acquiring the Green Bay copper-gold project in Newfoundland in 2021.

The world’s biggest mining fund BlackRock recently increased its stake in the company from 11.9% to 13.47%.

Like others that have flocked to the register, BlackRock expects FireFly to shortly unveil another resource upgrade and economic studies on Green Bay’s potential to become a high-grade 50,000tpa-plus copper producer.

Like the rest of the market, FireFly took a nasty share price hit on Thursday, falling 5.3% to $1.94 a share. The broader market sell-off was irresistible, but at least FireFly has some key re-rating events close at hand.

On April 30 it advised that an updated mineral resource estimate for Green Bay (currently 50.4Mt at 2% copper equivalent measured and indicated, and 29.3Mt at 2.5% CuEq inferred) was planned for the current June quarter.

What’s more, FireFly said the new MRE would underpin a preliminary economic assessment /scoping study due for completion in mid-2026, which is also just around the corner.

The PEA/scoping study is set to cover off on multiple development scenarios and it is clear that a higher grade “core zone” currently standing at 8.8Mt at 3.9% CuEq measured and indicated, and 10.9Mt at 3.8% CuEq inferred, will be demonstrated to be, in FireFly’s own words, an “extremely valuable” feed source in the early years of the operation.

On top of the likely awe factor in what comes in the PEA/scoping study, the first look at Green Bay’s economics and production profile will elevate FireFly’s appeal to the large mining groups looking to get bigger in copper through M & A.

It’s interesting to note then the comments by a BlackRock operative in Perth earlier in the week that the miners had to get bigger to achieve relevance with investors.

Develop:

Bill Beament’s Develop (ASX:DVP) is another company to have enjoyed rapid growth in its market cap in recent years.

Since the ex-Northern Star head honcho joined Develop in 2021 after a recapitalisation of the former sleepy company known as Venturex, its market cap has shot from $50m to just under $2 billion.

And like FireFly, the growth is largely due to Develop’s emergence as a 50,000tpa CuEq producer from its Woodlawn copper-zinc project near Goulburn in NSW and what is to come from its Sulphur Springs zinc-copper project in Western Australia.

But as mentioned here previously, Develop also owns the Pioneer Dome lithium project in WA. Not much interest in that when spodumene concentrate prices (6% lithium) collapsed to US$500/t last year.

But a lot of interest now that spodumene concentrate is now fetching US$2,540/t. Beament is looking to capitalise on the upturn by getting a ready-to-go open pit direct-shipping-ore (1.2% lithium) operation at Pioneer Dome into production pronto.

A final investment decision into a $35M-$40M development funded through a project finance debt facility with a preferred offtake partner is now planned for next month, leading to first sales in the December quarter.

Initially at least, the operation would be confined to 850,000t of DSO from an open pit although given the right market conditions, the DSO operation could move underground.

As it is, Develop reckons the current market conditions indicate it could receive $A500/t for its DSO on it being loaded on to a ship.

Assume costs of no more than $A200/t, and Pioneer Dome could be a nice earner (more than $A350m in EBITDA over two years by some estimates) against a backdrop of Develop hitting its straps as a 50,000tpa CuEq producer.

Xpedra:

Decent exploration results by an explorer with a modest market cap will always shine through when the broader market is having a bad day.

And so it was for Xpedra (ASX:XPD) in Thursday’s market with its 5.5% share price gain to a princely 1.9c for a market cap of $15 million.

The price rise was in response to encouraging drill results from its Springfield gold project near Gulgong in NSW.

Springfield and the broader Slashers Flat region was a producer of high-grade gold dating back to the 1870 but has not been drilled since 1999 when gold was in the dumps at US$280/oz.

If it had a WA goldfields address, the 1700m of known strike at Springfield would have had been intensively drilled by now.

That is now Xpedra’s opportunity in a modern day, systematic exploration effort.

Drilling by Xpedra to date has been returning wide and shallow gold intercepts, including 52m at 1.35g/t from 20m (including 11m at 3.03g/t from 39m).

Assays are pending for a further 22 drill holes and a new drilling program is planned to kick off next month. So apart from anything else, newsflow from the company with its ChatGPT sounding name will be as good as it gets in the junior gold space.