Talks, real or imagined, to end the fighting have failed to dispel anxiety felt by most investors who now know what it’s like to be the ball in a game of ping pong.

Tricky conditions can be expected to last well into next month, and perhaps longer, as every business calculates the impact of high fuel prices, especially for diesel, if its available.

Overall, much to the surprise of pessimists, the Australian stock market behaved as if nothing has been happening in the Persian Gulf with the broad-based all ordinaries index rising by 0.7% over the week.

It was a different story for gold miners which continued to be buffeted by the exit of over-stretched speculators who rubbed another 9.7% off the gold index, taking its fall to 26% for the past month.

Energy stocks, as predicted, continued to ride the oil price with the sector up 5% over the week and 15% over the month.

Leading oil and gas stocks such as Woodside, Santos and Beach were up slightly while smaller companies which rarely get a mention anywhere caught the eye of traders with moves that included:

  • Equus Energy, up 7% to 44c thanks to growing interest in its plans to develop a long-dormant gas field off WA’s north-west cost. The stock has doubled over the past 12-months.
  • Beetaloo Energy, up 4% to 25c as it works on plans to monetise a gas discovery in the Northern Territory, and
  • Nuenergy Gas, up 45% to 6.6c as it develops a coal-seam methane project in Indonesia.

The strong performance of oil and gas stocks seems likely to continue if the latest assessment of Goldman Sachs is correct with the record 2008 oil price of US$147 a barrel likely to fall whether the war ends or not.

The big investment bank argues that if the Persian Gulf remains blocked the oil price will obviously keep rising, but even after oil flow restart there will be a rush to rebuild strategic reserves, effectively “baking into oil a security premium”.

Small energy stocks were not alone in delivering surprise returns. Similar results could be found, if you looked hard enough, with significant rises that included:

  • Killi Resources, up 7c (58%) to 19c, after announcing a corporate overhaul with the appointment of new board members, including former Fortescue boss Nev Palmer.
  • Felix Gold, up 10c to 32c (46%) to 32c after reporting encouraging developments at its Treasure Creek antimony and gold project in Alaska.
  • Elevra Lithium (formerly Sayona), up $1.58 to $7.76 to lead a generally stronger lithium sector.
  • Waratah Minerals, up 11c to 67c after reporting fresh drilling success at its Spur copper and gold project in NSW.
  • Fortescue, up 88c to $19.88 thanks to the iron ore price sticking at around US$106 a tonne, and as the company attracts attention for its switch away from diesel.
  • Metals X, up 11c to $1.24 as the tin price edges higher to US$44,238/t, and
  • Evolution Mining, up 88c to $12.73, delivering the best performance of the big gold miners.

A metal close to the wallets of many Australian investors, gold was down 2.5% over the week to US$4520/oz but there is concern in financial centres that it could fall further thanks to the economic damage being caused by the high oil price.

Central banks, which started the gold boom three years ago, could yet again be critical in the next move.

A negative theory is that gold will be hurt by governments selling gold to support their bruised economies as well as to help and pay for a build-up in defence spending as both the Iran and Ukraine wars rumble on.

A positive theory, promoted by the World Gold Council, is that central banks will keep buying as part of their “de-dollarisation” strategy designed to cut exposure to the unpredictable U.S. dollar.

The WGC said that it expects central banks to buy around 850 tonnes of gold this year, the same as last year, with new countries entering the gold market including Indonesia, Malaysia and Guatemala.

Morgans, a Brisbane-based broking firm, said it maintained a bullish long-term view of gold but advised clients to be cautious in the near-term with an exception being Turaco Gold which is tipped to rise from 60c to $2.10 as its Afema project in Ivory Coast continues to grow.

Other gold moves included Northern Star, up 21c to $18.77. Ramelius, up 3c to $3.58. Genesis, up 28c to $5.79, and Brightstar, up 2c to 36c with CG Capital Markets tipping a future price of $2.40.

Lithium stocks, as seen in the strong rise by Elvera, had a good week thanks to the metal’s role in energy storage with strong moves by Pls, up 86c to $4.92. Liontown, up 33c to $1.72. Vulcan, up 30c to $3.20. IGO, up 70c to $7.60, and Power Minerals, up 2c to 11c.

Rare earth stocks also had a solid week with Lynas leading the way up with a rise of $1.03 to $19.89. Iluka rose by 42c to $6.44, and Brazilian Rare Earths crept up by 5c to $4.31 but is tipped by CG Capital Markets to rocket up to $8.

After Waratah’s rise, mentioned earlier, the copper sector was a mixed bag. Sandfire did best with a 34c rise to $15.71 while Capstone added 12c to $10.49.

Austral Resources, which is developing a copper project close to Mt Isa in Queensland rose by 0.2 to 8.2c but has strong support from Bell Potter which sees Austral rising to 17c as it finalises a recapitalisation process and lays to foundation for its Mt Kelly project.

Other news and moves of interest in another tricky week included:

  • Assay lab operator ALS slipping 46c to $20.16 despite an upbeat research note from RBC Capital Markets which sees the stock rising to $22.50. The bank said demand for mining technical services was strong and most explorers had already raised the cash they need to pay ALS.
  • Centaurus added 5c to 55c after receiving a letter of intent from the Brazilian National Development Bank to support the Jaguar nickel project. CG Capital Markers has a price target on Centaurus of 85c.
  • Chalice, which is also starting to benefit from the nickel content in its Gonneville polymetallic project in WA, rose by 3c to $1.44
  • Flynn Gold rose by 0.1c to 2c after reporting additional gold and tungsten indications from drilling at its Firetower project in Tasmania, and
  • Rumble Resources added 0.5c to 4.6c after reporting encouraging tungsten grades from lab work at its Western Queen project in WA.