Platinum, palladium, and rhodium have joined the precious metals party with equally impressive gains.

Platinum is up 25% this month, and 110% since the start of the year. Palladium has risen by 19% in a month and 89% over the year, while thinly-traded rhodium is up 75% since January.

But as 2025 ends, a question of sustainability should be creeping into the minds of investors if only because nothing goes up forever, and the more disturbing thought being that the higher something goes the further it has to fall.

Lithium and copper are early contenders for the title of top metal in ’26. Lithium thanks to growing demand from battery energy storage systems (BESS) as well as from electric vehicles (EVs). Copper has multiple growth markets and is a winner from the electrification of everything.

As a theme to follow next year, energy might be hard to beat including the potential for a fossil fuels comeback as the drive for energy transition to a world powered by renewables starts to run out of steam.

Politically unpopular as it might be to disparage the renewables crusade, the “all energy” investment idea got a boost from a fresh airing this week of an argument that it is incorrect to see energy “transition” as a process of replacing one form of energy with another.

French academic Jean-Baptiste Fressoz, argued last year that coal did not displace wood as an energy source, and oil did not displace coal, leading to a conclusion that renewables will not displace oil and gas.

A better way of analysing energy is to see demand for everything rising, a point driven home this week in a report from the International Energy Agency that global coal production hit an all-time high this year, up 0.5% to 9.11 billion tonnes. Coal is obviously not being replaced by renewables.

To further make the point that energy transition is a furphy, it was reported that Europe currently burns three times as much wood today as it did 100 years ago.

It is news like that which could see a significant revival in oil and gas stocks next year, especially given the active encouragement of fossil fuels by the U.S. President, Donald Trump.

UBS has copper and critical metals at the top of its recommendations for next year and while gold remains attractive, the investment bank issued a veiled warning that “no bull run lasts forever”.

Another issue for investors to mull as markets head into the Christmas break is the first sign of trouble in the artificial intelligence (AI) data centre building boom as big technology companies turn to debt to fund their expansion plans which are yet to demonstrate a strong business case. Deutsche Bank also warned that a lot could yet go wrong with AI.

If the AI rush does hit a speed bump it could also dampen demand for copper which has for the last 12-months been driven by supply shortages more than growing consumption.

Technology stocks took a hit on the New York market yesterday as investors pressed the AI pause button, a change which flowed into precious metals and copper demand.

Locally, gold stocks easily outperformed the broader market with the ASX gold index up 4% over the week, whereas the all ordinaries lost 1.1% as did the metals index.

Alicanto was this week’s top gold stock, rising by 3.4c (62%) to 8.9c after announcing the transformational acquisition of the Mt Henry gold project in WA from Westgold Resources which, in turn, rose by 8.5c to $6.23.

Other gold moves included:

  • Ausgold, up 20c to $1.15 after announcing an updated definitive feasibility study into its Katanning project in WA.
  • Minerals 260, up 2.5c to 28c after reporting additional high-grade gold assays from drilling at its Bullabulling project in WA, including seven metres at 38.75 grams a tonne.
  • Ramelius, down 22c to $3.76, ending a month-long upward run. Macquarie Bank reckons the stock will rise again, setting a price target of $4.60.
  • Gorilla Gold added 8c to 58c after reporting a 900% increase in the mineral resource at its Comet Vale project to 860,000oz.
  • Ecograf, best known for its graphite assets, rose by 5.5c to 39c after announcing the start of a farm-in deal with global gold leader AngloGold Ashanti on its mineral leases in Tanzania, and
  • Perseus Mining added 7.5c to $5.52 after walking away from its attempt to acquire Predictive Discovery which, in turn, rose by 5c to 70c.

Citi maintained its optimistic view of gold in updated price forecasts for local leaders, including Evolution, up from a target price of $11 to $12.70. Northern Star, up from $24 to $28.10. Genesis, up from $5.70 to $7.60 and Greatland, up from $5.13 to $5.95.

Silver stocks largely failed to track their metal with Sun Silver leading the way down with a fall of 8c to $1.46, a correction which needs to be seen against an 82c (128%) rise since the start of the year.

West Coast Silver was 2c weaker at 17c. Rapid Critical Metals slipped 1c lower to 4.8c, while Investigator was steady at 8.6c. Black Bear Minerals was the silver exception, rising by 8c to $1.46.

IGO was the best of the lithium stocks with a rise of 50c to $7.61 after being included in an upbeat review of the sector by leading U.S. investment bank J.P. Morgan which also added buy recommendations for Liontown, which fell by 10c to $1.45, and PLS, which lost 24c to $3.96.

London-listed SolGold was the newsmaker in the copper sector after a Chinese company won the support of major shareholders with a takeover offer, only to see the stock slip 4-pence (13%) lower 24.7p.

Sandfire, the local copper leader, was 11c weaker at $17 but was on the receiving end of concerning comments after an unappealing update of its Black Butte project in the U.S.

Macquarie Bank cut its target price for Sandfire from $16.90 to $16.80 while Morgan Stanley went much harder with a sell recommendation and a target price of $11.45 (ouch!).

Other news and market moves in the last full trading week of the year included:

  • Boss Energy led a weaker uranium sector with a fall of 44c to $1.12 after releasing a downbeat assessment of its Honeymoon project in South Australia. The stock was trading in June at $4.67. Paladin lost 88c to $8.27, and Deep Yellow, was down 23c at $1.65.
  • St George Mining caught the eye of Macquarie Bank which sent an analyst to its Brazilian rare earth project, returning with a buy tip and price target of 20c as the stock sat unmoved at 8.8c even after reporting a 139.45 metre intersection of rare earths at its Araxa project.
  • American Rare Earths also failed to respond positively to an optimistic analyst report, slipping 5c lower to 34c despite Bell Potter initiating coverage with a buy tip and price target of 65c, and
  • Boab Metals slipped 1.5c lower to 49c after announcing the completion of a $60 million capital raising for its Sorby Hills silver/lead/zinc project in the north of WA.