The twin keys to understanding how the 2025-26 year will evolve are an expectation that global interest rates will fall significantly and that Trump will find a way to end the war in Ukraine by offering Russian leader Vladimir Putin a deal he can’t refuse.

Love him, or hate him, Trump was the key man in ending the Israel v Iran war with an astonishing demonstration of the military power at his command, something that Putin undoubtedly respects, as will China’s leader Xi Jinping.

For investors, the events unfolding today will set the tone for at least the next three years, with the impact of sharply increased defence spending having a significant effect on demand for all metals, especially copper and rare earths.

Other “war” metals, including tungsten, antimony, tantalum, and gallium, are likely to benefit from the re-militarisation of the western world as it reacts, belatedly, to Russia’s westward march, and China’s threats in the east.

Gold, it can be argued, is actually the leading war metal because it is the preferred safe-haven asset of rich people concerned about the future, with other metals following as defence spending rises, which is happening in Europe, and even in Australia.

Lithium and iron ore are likely to be the commodities most likely to have a tough time thanks to ongoing supply surpluses and sluggish demand.

Hints of what’s to come could be seen this week as financial markets crawled towards the end of a largely forgettable financial year which was totally dominated by the gold boom unleashed by central bank buying.

The 45% rise in the gold price over the past 12-months (including 27% since January 1) could be as good as it gets for gold, which has been struggling to rise much beyond US$3340 an ounce for the past two months.

But even if gold hovers around that price, which can legitimately be described as sky-high, there could be a re-rating of gold producers, which are trousering whopping profits at the spot market price and will remain hugely profitable even if the price slips to US$3000/oz, or lower.

Wilsons Advisory said in a note to clients that safe haven demand would be the key to gold next financial year thanks to geopolitical risks, structural growth in central bank demand and “macro tail risks” such as the China v U.S. trade war and U.S. fiscal sustainability, code for rising U.S. government debt.

Gold news this week was dominated by the keenly-awaited listing of Greatland Resources which started strongly on the ASX before fading as stags offloaded part of their holding in a stock which has been building a strong support base in London.

From initial sales locally at $7.10 Greatland rose to $7.52 before a long slide back to $7.11, a price reached after an alarming plunge to $6.86 in early trade yesterday. Macquarie sees a bright future for Greatland, tipping a rise back to $7.80.

Smaller gold stocks did much better than the heavily promoted Greatland, which boasts billionaires Andrew and Nicola Forrest on its share register, with other eye-catching moves by gold stocks including:

  • Olympio Metals, up 6.7c (155%) to 11c after reporting visible gold in the first hole drilled at its Bousquet project in Canada.
  • GBM Resources, up 0.6c (66%) to 1.5c after announcing a restructure and $13 million capital rising, and
  • Ausgold, up 5c to 75c after announcing a farm in deal covering exploration ground adjacent to its Kulin prospect north of its Katanning gold project.

Offsetting the rises was a long tail of gold stocks losing ground as the ASX gold index slipped 6% lower over the week thanks largely to a fall of $1.44 to $18.90 by sector leader Northern Star and a 15c fall by Evolution to $7.47.

Uranium stocks lived up to the forecast of a strong outlook by either rising on the market or rushing out a capital raising to capture the improving mood of investors.

News which appears to have captured attention was a decision by the State of New York to proceed with the first development in 15 years of a new nuclear power station in the U.S.

The New York move follows a decision earlier this month by the World Bank to lift a ban on funding nuclear power projects, a decision which even the strictly anti-nuclear Australian Government will eventually find hard to ignore.

On the local market, Bannerman Energy unveiled an $85 million raising to fund its mining operations in Namibia and Alligator Energy said it had raised $17 million in a placement to push on with its uranium projects in the Northern Territory. Both stocks slipped slightly lower.

Upward moves by uranium stocks included Boss adding 17c to $4.61 and Paladin rising by 48c to $7.85, with CG Capital markets tipping a price target of $12.80.

UBS said it was upgrading its outlook for uranium “on an improved U.S. backdrop which has buoyed broad market sentiment”.

Copper, another member of the trio seen as leading what could be a wide commodity industry revival in the new financial, rose back to within touching distance of US$5 a pound, last trading at US$4.94/lb, up US20c over the week.

Apart from rising demand for the key metal in the electrification of everything, there were reports of a short sellers squeeze as traders respond to falling copper inventories.

Australia’s two biggest copper miners, BHP and Rio Tinto, rose with the copper price even as iron ore, the mineral for which they are best known, continued to weaken, a sign that investors are starting to see the pair more as copper growth stocks and less as fading iron ore stars.

BHP added 16c to $36.10 and Rio Tinto rose by $2.40 to $104.38, with both companies benefiting from a U.S. Government green light for the development of their jointly owned Resolution mine in Arizona.

New World Resources attracted most attention among small copper stocks as a bidding duel erupted for the company and its U.S. assets.

Canada’s Kinterra Capital outed itself as a bidder for NWR with an on-market offer of 5.7c, valuing the stock at $204 million. The offer is 0.2c higher than the original bid from London-listed Central Asia Metals (CAM). On the market NWR traded up to 5.9c, indicating that a counter bid is expected from CAM.

Rare earths, the third sector expected to perform strongly in the new financial year, bounced back yesterday after a slow start to the week, led by Lynas, which rose by 12c to $9.20 and Iluka, a mineral sands miner increasingly seen as an emerging rare earth play, which added 14c to $3.63.

The big rare earths winner remains U.S. based MP Materials which lost 90c this week to US$35.40 but is up US$16.63 (88%) over the past month thanks to interest in its role as a non-Chinese rare earth provider for modern technologies.

MP is also a future merger partner for Lynas thanks to the role of their common major shareholder, Australian billionaire Gina Rinehart, and despite denials that a deal is brewing.

Iron ore stocks had a mixed week. Fortescue rose by 35c to $14.94, more because of an expectation of a generous dividend from this year’s profit. Mineral Resources eased back by 33c to $21.23 but continues to receive support from Morgan Stanley which is sticking with a price tip of $35.

Another theme of the week which could be a pointer to next financial year being the start of an overdue commodity sector revival was a wall of fund raising share issues, some quite large. They included:

  • Develop Global raising $180 million to accelerate work on its Sulphur Springs copper/zinc project in WA.
  • Bannerman’s $85 million and Alligator’s $17 million raising mentioned earlier to fund uranium work.
  • AIC Mines attracting $55 million in a placement to institution for the expansion of its Eloise copper mine in Queensland.
  • GBM’s $13 million raising mentioned earlier.
  • New Murchison Gold raising $15 million for its Crown Prince gold mine in WA.
  • Great Boulder raising $12.5 million to grow its Side Well gold project.
  • Rapid Critical Metals raising $10.5 million to buy silver assets in NSW, and
  • LinQ Minerals announcing a $10 million initial public offering, the first gold float on the ASX this year.

Other news and market moves of interest include:

  • Chalice Mining, up 9c to $1.67 after releasing an updated development plan for its Gonneville palladium, copper, and nickel project.
  • The potential to revive Australia’s troubled local potash industry on news that share prices of international potash produces have risen sharply this year with Canada’s Nutrien up 25% to C$81.50 and Mosaic of the U.S. up 45$ to US$36.
  • Patriot Battery Metals up 1c to 24c after reporting a plan to expand its hunt for tantalum at its Canadian lithium project, and
  • Mark Hohnen chaired Canyon Resources up 1c to 25c after confirming the first shipment of bauxite next year from its Minim Martap project in Cameroon with CG Capital markets seeing the stock rising to 35c.