More importantly, a strong end to this year sets up conditions for a strong new financial year when rates should be falling, confidence should be rising, and global growth picking up speed.

Overall, the Australian market as measured by the all-ordinaries index, is up 12% on this time last year, comfortably ahead of Australia’s rate of inflation.

The prize for top sector, subject to sudden changes in the days before June 30, goes to the gold index which is up 15%, while the broader metals index has risen by a marginal 4% with weakness in coal, iron ore and nickel offsetting sharp rises by stocks exposed to critical and energy metals.

Macquarie Bank got into the retrospective mood this week producing a graph which showed that gold was the top performing metal over the past 12-months, up 8%, followed by copper, which rose by 2%, but the more interesting aspect of the graph was that everything else was down including the big losers in cobalt, which has fallen by 44% and nickel, down by 25%.

Gold could do well again next year if the U.S. central bank takes its foot off the interest rate pedal before Christmas with a number of investment banks tipping another 15% increase from its latest price of US$1934 an ounce to around US$2200/oz.

It’s that outlook for gold which will have played a role in one of the biggest goldmine expansion projects of the past decade, the $1.5 billion doubling in size of milling and mining capacity at Northern Star’s Kalgoorlie operations, once known as the Super Pit.

The widely-expected announcement of the upgrade, which will lift annual gold output to 900,000oz at an all-in cost of A$1425/oz – but did little for Northern Star’s share price which fell by 34c over the week to $12.62 though RBC Capital Markets was quick to slip out a buy note and price target of $13.25.

Resolution of the long-running St Barbara takeover battle was the other major item of gold news this week with Genesis finally beating off its rival, Silver Lake Resources, with St Barbara shareholders voting to accept the Genesis offer.

But whether Genesis is really a winner can be debated given the challenge of revitalising St Barbara’s old assets at the WA goldmining centre of Leonora.

On the market, Genesis lost 6c to $1.23 while Silver Lake fell by the same amount to trade at 95c, and St Barbara shed 4.7c to 47c, a collective decline which looks like a relief sell-off by investors glad to see the end of the duel.

Other gold news and market moves included:

  • Kingsgate, up 16c to $1.46 after reporting encouraging exploration results close to its Chatree mine in Thailand with a best hit of 19 metres at 2.73 grams of gold a tonne.
  • De Grey, down 1c to $1.35 after announcing a plan to spend $25 million for a 50% stake in the Becher project owned by Canada’s Novo Resources which adjoins De Grey’s Mallina development in WA.
  • Gold Road, down 15c to $1.59 after announcing downgraded production estimates for the current year thanks to a rain-effected June quarter with RBC cutting its tip on the stock to sell with a new price target of $1.50, and
  • Adriatic Metals, adding 2c to $2.91 after reporting that its Vares silver project in Bosnia is now 78% complete.

Exploration and development news triggered a number of positive price moves including American West Metals rising by 3.2c (36%) to 12c ahead of reporting a rich copper assay of 8% over 1.5 metres at its Storm project in Canada, earning the company a speeding inquiry and trading suspension.

Other development news included Talga adding 6.5c to $1.41 after receiving environmental approval for its battery anode factory in Sweden, and Leo Lithium adding 10c to $1.10 after announcing a 48% increase in resources at its Goulamina project in Mali.

Offsetting the positive news was another wake-up call for investors that cost inflation remains a value destroyer, especially for projects in the development phase with sharply higher prices for labour, steel, and processing equipment, damaging project economics.

BCI Minerals stunned even its most ardent supporters when it unveiled a new all-inclusive cost of $1.63 billion for its Mardie potash and sale project on the northern WA coast, close to double the original $905 million.

That increase for Mardie comes as the price of potash takes a steep fall thanks to decline in Chinese demand for the fertiliser though investors appeared relieved that the bad news is out, lifting BCI’s share price by 2c to 24c – though it was trading at 31c in January.

The Mardie blow-out follows a 40% increase in the estimated cost of building the Yangibana rare earth mine of Hastings Technology Metals.

Cost warnings also came this week from BHP which is concerned about new Australian “same job, same pay” labour laws which could lift its overall staff costs by $1.5 billion. BHP management described the laws as a productivity killer. On the market, BHP slipped 67c lower to $45.62.

There were also unconfirmed reports that BHP is introducing a labour hiring freeze which, if true, could flow across the mining industry.

Leo Lithium, mentioned earlier, was one of the better lithium stocks this week whereas Lake Resources was one of the worst, shedding 16c (31%) to 31c after a shock announcement that its Kachi project in Argentina would be delayed by six years (yes, six years) and costs would be significantly higher than expected.

Other lithium news and market moves this week included:

  • Azure Minerals up another 26c to $1.39 after the release of new results from drilling at its Andover project in WA including 112.4m at 1.05% lithium. The stock was trading at 24c in January.
  • Mitre Mining, up 3.5c to 33c after reporting the presence of numerous pegmatites on its East Pilbara property.
  • Latin Resources, up 2.5c to 24c after reporting an upgrade in the lithium resource at its Salinas project in Brazil to 45 million tonnes. Bell Potter reckons the stock is heading up to 37c.
  • Burley Minerals added 1.5c to 21c after announcing a switch in focus from Australia to Canadian lithium, and
  • Global Lithium rose by 1.5c to $1.48 after announcing a land access agreement at its Manna project in WA’s Pilbara region. Shaw and Partners sees the stock rising to $3.50.

Other news and market moves in the second last week of the ’23 financial year included:

  • Centaurus, up 17c to 92c after a deal with Brazil’s iron ore giant Vale covering Jaguar nickel offtake rights. Macquarie lifted its target price for Centaurus to $1.55.
  • Chalice incurred a 31c fall to $6.62 after UBS initiated research with a sell, which is somewhat odd as it had never told its clients to buy. The UBS target for Chalice is $6.
  • Goldman Sachs maintained its bearish outlook for iron ore with sell recommendations on Fortescue and Mineral Resources. Fortescue, according to the bank will fall by $6.92 to a target of $14.90. MinRes could fall by $14.07 to $59, and
  • Hard-hit rare-earth stock Hastings started a long climb back from a bout of heavy selling to add 6.5c to $1.30. Lynas lost 6.5c to $7.19 while Arafura was steady at 33c even as Bell Potter tipped it as a buy with a target price of 72c.