SPUT was established in 2021 to buy up physical uranium on the spot market and take it out of market circulation.
This uranium will not be on-sold for a quick profit.
Instead, pounds bought from the market by this vehicle will be sequestered for the long term and, crucially, each pound bought by SPUT will be one less pound available for end-users during the next cycle.
It currently has over 61.7 million pounds of U3O8 under lock and key.
New York fund managers Goehring and Rozencwajg track (and own) SPUT as a barometer of uranium investor sentiment.
“When investors are bullish on uranium, the Sprott Uranium Trust often trades at a significant premium to the value of its uranium holdings,” they say.
“At its peak in September 2021, it traded at a 30% premium to NAV [net asset value]. In contrast, when investors turn bearish, the Sprott Uranium Trust can trade at a discount to NAV.”
When SPUT trades at a premium to NAV, it can issue new shares and purchase uranium. When it trades at a discount, this option is not available.
This is where the savvy speculators come in.
Financial players will be a huge force in global uranium markets, and SPUT will become their preferred speculative vehicle, Goehring and Rozencwajg say.
“Speculators will eventually realise they can bull the Sprott Physical Uranium Trust, force a premium, have the Trust issue shares, and permanently sequester physical material,” they say.
“Although this strategy would not work in a well-supplied market, it could create sharp price increases when physical material is scarce as utilities are forced to compete with speculators for volumes.
“Uranium is bullish on its own; however, this unique dynamic could cause prices to surge.
“The next upward move in uranium could be particularly strong and chaotic.”
US$60-90/lb seems to be the new consensus price to incentivise new projects to come online, says Canaccord Genuity following a bunch of panel discussions at the CG Global Metals & Mining conference.
Spot, which is just an indication of term contract pricing (where most uranium production goes), is currently edging higher towards US$60/lb.
Term contracts are already starting to reflect these higher prices, Canaccord says.
“Minimum floor prices have risen to US$48-$50/lb U3O8, and ceilings have moved to US$75-$80/lb, a material increase above the ~US$60/lb ceiling price expected just a year ago,” they say.
“A number of our panelists also suggested that they are not in a rush to commit their pounds right now and would rather hold those pounds or have them 100%-market linked (to spot) to capture potential upside as prices increase over the next couple of years.”
Bank of America (BofA) analysts are also bullish on uranium and nuclear power.
“After a decade of underinvestment, a shortage is visible; our strategists forecast 20-40% upside,” they say in a recent note.
“Global demand is also rising, with 60 new reactors being built & 100 more approved. Resource nationalism, energy security, war and inflation echo the nuclear build-out of the 1970s/80s.
“Our metals analyst, Michael Widmer, forecasts uranium prices of $75/lb by the end of 2025.”
BofA metals strategists believe global mine production will not be able to keep pace with uranium demand and commercial inventories will be needed to plug the gap.
Their forecast implies a production deficit of 60 million pounds in 2035, on par with Kazakhstan’s (15% of global reserves) annual output:
