But things change, and the uranium price is doing some interesting things in 2022.

Last month, the uranium spot price hit an 11-year high of US$65/pound – the magic number often touted by uranium players that would push them to get into production – before plunging back below $US50/lb. Stocks followed.

The word ‘whipsawing’ comes to mind.

And yet the medium to long term outlook for the nuclear fuel remains extremely positive, says Rick Rule, in a recent interview with Stockhead’s Oriel Morrison.

“The incentive price for new production of uranium with inflation in the supply chain is $US75/lb,” Rule says.

“Given [the world is] using 180 million pounds and producing 120 million pounds – meaning that there is a 60 million pound per year shortfall – it’s pretty simple to figure out that over the five-year time frame that the price of uranium needs to go through the incentive price of $US75.

“Either that, or the lights go out. Those are the only two choices.

“Which of those happens? I suspect that the price of uranium goes up.”

Maybe not, but investors who are confident of the uranium bull market thematic should hold their nerve.

“Could the price of uranium go from $US48/lb to $US40/lb first?,” Rule asks.

“Absolutely. But if the price must go through $US75/lb, it is a potential $US7 downside juxtaposed with a minimal $US15 upside – the juxtaposition of risk v reward looks very attractive.”

This where the psychology of investing comes into play. Rule often talks about how he bought into Paladin Energy (ASX:PDN) at 10c per share back in the mid-2000s.

It went down to 1c … then all the way to ~$10 a share, creating fortunes in the process.

The first time Rule and Morrison spoke about the uranium price three years ago it was at $US18/lb.

“When people say the uranium price is down, I suggest they take a look at history,” Rule says.

“The price has either increased from $US18/lb to $US48/lb, or it has declined from $US65/lb to $US48/lb. That really depends on your point of view.

“From my own point of view the uranium price is up nicely and given that I am looking to add substantially to my uranium position I am delighted to see it lower in price.”

Rule follows 75 uranium listings world-wide, including many in Australia. Of that, he has a shopping list that is limited to 12.

“We think that maybe 50 listings in the uranium space worldwide are unviable at $US100/lb,” Rule says.

“So, people that are participating in the uranium space need to be particularly concerned about viability.

“There are certainly Australian listed companies – Lotus, Paladin, Boss, Deep Yellow – that I think are excellent speculations.”