The broker has maintained its Speculative Buy recommendation, with a $1.45 per share price target (versus its price on Wednesday morning of $0.71).

Firefly is a $350 million market-capped company focused on unlocking the potential of copper resources, operating primarily in the mining-friendly jurisdiction of Green Bay, Canada.

The company’s flagship is the Ming Mine project, which leverages advanced exploration techniques and a strategic approach to resource development.

In addition to Ming, Firefly is actively engaged in regional exploration activities within the broader Green Bay mineral package.

Copper, often hailed as an industrial bellwether, continues to show strong market trends.

With global smelter production expected to surpass concentrate supply until 2027, the demand-supply imbalance sets a favourable stage for prices.

The halt in operations at the huge Cobre Panama mine – after protests by Panamanians over its environmental impact and a court ruling the contract to run it was unconstitutional – has further heightened concerns about copper supply, emphasising the importance of reliable copper sources such as Firefly Mining.

Despite recent price highs, copper is still trading below historical peaks when adjusted for inflation.

This indicates that there’s still room for growth, especially considering the ongoing global infrastructure projects and the increasing adoption of electric vehicles, which heavily rely on copper components.

Argonaut said that in such a scenario, companies such as FFM, with their focus on copper production, stood to benefit from the market dynamics, making them attractive investment options.

One of the key drivers of Firefly Mining’s potential lies in its recent drilling results.

These have not only confirmed the presence of economically viable mineralisation, but have also expanded the scope of exploration beyond the previously defined resource boundaries.

The most recently announced set of drilling results from Ming have confirmed potentially economic mineralisation down plunge from the current MRE (minerals resource estimate).

Highlights from this release include:

  •  9.1m at 5.4 per cent CuEq
  •  12m at 4.8 per cent CuEq
  •  13m at 4.4 per cent CuEq.

Historical hole R17-25B (102m at 1.7 per cent Cu, 0.1g/t Au) extends known mineralisation at least 350m down plunge from the termination of the existing MRE.

“We see no reason why the deposit would continue further than this hole,” said Argonaut.

“As it is progressed, FFM’s exploration drive will enable deeper potential extents of the deposit to be tested.”

What sets Firefly apart though, according to Argonaut, is its leverage of advanced geological modelling techniques like the 3D geological model.

This model serves as a dynamic tool for monitoring and modelling future drill results, allowing for informed decision-making.

“We have updated our Ming redevelopment forecast for 10 per cent higher capital and slightly increased mining costs,” said Argonaut.

FFM has also reported new drilling results from beyond the bounds of the existing 30.2Mt at 2.1 per cent for 634kt CuEq Ming resource estimate.

Drilling operations began from a newly constructed development drill drive, targeting areas below known resource boundaries.

In the upper sections of the mine, FFM encountered zones rich in copper and gold, showcasing notable grades of mineralisation.

Better results from the upper high-grade Massive Sulphide Upper Zones include:

  •  9.1m at 5.4 per cent CuEq (3.1 per cent Cu & 2.4g/t Au)
  •  13m at 4.4 per cent CuEq (3.7 per cent Cu & 0.8g/t Au)
  •  11m at 4.4 per cent CuEq (1.2 per cent Cu & 3.8g/t Au)

Lower sections of the mine also displayed significant mineralisation, underscoring the substantial mineral potential.

Lower footwall results include:

  •  12.0m at 4.8 per cent CuEq within a broader zone of 37.4m @ 2.7 per cent CuEq
  •  4m at 4.05 per cent CuEq within a broader zone of 23.2m @ 2.0 per cent CuEq
  •  13.8m at 2.3 per cent CuEq and 12.0m @ 2.0 per cent CuEq within 62.5m @ 1.3 per cent CuEq

Following an equity raise in March, FFM is well funded to accelerate MRE expansion drilling, redevelopment studies and regional exploration.

Argonaut believes the company’s well-funded initiatives position it for potential share price catalysts in the short to medium term.

“Positive progression on any of these fronts could further buoy FFM’s share price performance,” said Argonaut.

“Improved strength in the copper price seems likely, adding further near-term upside.

“Crystallisation of additional funds through divestment of the Pickle Crow asset would also be well received.

“We assume a 24-month build period with construction starting in July 2026 at a total cost of $US330 million.

“Under our base case parameters, we estimate a Green Bay build date post-tax NPV of $872 million ($1.83 per share), and present-day post-tax NPV of $692 million ($1.45ps),” said Argonaut.