The fall in Ellison’s fortune from $1.8 billion in May to $820 million this week (as measured by his 22.58 million shares in MinRes) is one of the personal costs at a company in a crisis caused by Ellison’s historic tax bloopers.

Another 65,873 shareholders in MinRes are also feeling the pain from the 22% share price fall this week to $36.04 of a one-time investor favorite which helped drag the ASX mining index down by 2.4% and the all-ordinaries index down by 1.3%.

Gold stocks did best, as they have done for most of the year, with the gold index up 4.8% even with a late downturn in the gold price which continues to knock on the door of US$3000 announce, last trading at US$2725 an ounce – up 32% since the start of the year.

The MinRes saga, which could run for months, is a wake-up call for investors about the risks associated with a company dominated by a forceful chief executive who dislikes being questioned – and there are others which fit that description.

But the speed of the MinRes fall has been breathtaking. It was only five months ago that the company was flying high with a share price close to $80, a level which was defying low prices for iron ore and lithium and speculation that the company was under financial pressure after a period of rapid expansion.

Some brokers believe it’s safe to buy MinRes after the fall but others, such as Ord Minett, are concerned about where the inquiries into Ellison’s tax affairs might lead, raising question about the “corporate governance and risk profile” of MinRes.

As if one personal predicament was not enough to weigh on the confidence of investors, an even more interesting personal mess engulfed Richard White, founder of WiseTech Global, a $34 billion tech giant which has fallen by 24% over the past month.

White’s problems are not with the tax man, they’re messier and far more personal, a quarrel over the cost of furniture in the love nest he shared with a former girlfriend which has slashed his fortune by an estimated $2 billion.

The thud of falling billionaires drowned about more important news about interest rates, where Australia has become a global outlier with the International Monetary Fund tipping higher rates for longer as inflation remains stickier than most other countries.

Trump v Harris in the U.S. presidential election race is also rattling nerves with financial markets appearing to be leaning toward a Trump win, and all that means for the restart of a trade war with China which would bruise Australia.

Other major items of potentially market moving news this week included:

  • Speculation that BHP is preparing to launch a fresh takeover bid for arch-rival and major copper producer Anglo American. The key date which BHP needs to reach before it can return with a fresh offer is November 29.
  • Base metals, normally a lacklustre collection that includes zinc and lead, have suddenly developed a following as reports surface of shortages which can be measured by a collapse in treatment charges which refineries levy for processing ore, having to offer discounts when raw material supplies are low.
  • Copper, the metal which best reflects overall market sentiment, edged higher to US$4.32 a pound but is tipped to reach US$4.60/lb by Morgan Stanley before the end of the year (67 days to go) if China can stabilise its property market, and
  • Fortescue Metals reported a largely in-line September quarter report but quietly dropped another of its courageous hydrogen plans while copping a fresh round of criticism from analysts at Jarden who see its shares falling from this week’s $19.06 to $16.81 thanks to high capital investment costs and a weak price realisation relative to the benchmark iron ore price.

Most of the good news in the market this week, as might be expected, came in the gold sector but it might be a wise investor to question how high the gold balloon can fly – which is what London gold specialist Ross Norman did during the week by using an obscure medical term, apophenia.

A condition in which sufferers see patterns and connections which do not necessarily exist, apophenia is also known as Monte Carlo fallacy in which a gambler believes that because black has repeatedly turned up in spins of the roulette wheel it must be time for red.

What worries Norman, who publishes the website Metals Daily, is that no-one really knows who is buying hundreds of tonnes of gold at its current record price which leads to a question as to whether the buying can continue.

Gold bugs do not like questions like that but there are some professional analysts getting worried about whether share prices can keep rising. Jarden and RBC, for example, marked Northern Star down this week.

Despite reporting a reasonable September quarter report RBC reckons Northern Star will retreat from its latest price of $17.52 to $17, while Jarden sees a crash coming with the stock plunging all the way to $12.30.

Other gold and silver news and market moves included:

  • Mithril, up 11c to 56c after reporting high grade silver and gold assays from channel samples at its Copalquin project in Mexico with a best reading of 1.75 metres at 9.19 grams of gold a tonne and 653g/t of silver.
  • Rox Resources, up 6c to 20c after reporting high grade assays from drilling at its Youanmi project in WA, with a top hit of 30.1m at 19.81g/t from a depth of 325m. CG Capital Markets reckons Rox is heading up to 55c.
  • Ora Banda, up 16c to 91c as investors revisit a once troubled company which is making brisk progress rejuvenating the Riverina mine in WA, generating a handsome payday for its chief executive Luke Creigh which The Australian newspaper reckons is in line for a $68 million profit from an options deal.
  • Sun Silver, up 8c to $1.02 as it attracts investor attention with its Maverick Springs project in the U.S. The stock was trading at 41c in August.
  • Astral Resources, up 2c to 14c after fresh high-grade intercepts from drilling ay the Kamperman project in WA with a best hit of 177g/t over 3m, and
  • Genesiss Minerals, up 20c to $2.50 after releasing a strong September quarter report. CG Capital Markets has a price target of $2.80 on the stock.

Lithium stocks remained under pressure as the price of the metal remained stuck in the doldrums caused by oversupply. Pilbara slipped 3c lower to $2.67. Liontown lost 2c to 85c. Patriot was 4c weaker at 39c, and Vulcan dropped by 23c to $4.69.

Lotus was the uranium sector newsmaker, upsizing a $110 million capital raising to $130 million after a strong reception from investors to its plans to restart the Kayelekera project in Malawi. On the market, Lotus lost 4c to 26c.

Most other uranium stocks also lost ground. Boss was 9c weaker at $3.59. Paladin lost 30c to $12.53. Deep Yellow was down 10c at $1.45, with Toro an exception, adding 2c to 30c after announcing it had added Vanadium to its re-optimisation of the Lake Maitland uranium project in WA.

Rare earth stocks had a poor week with Meteoric an exception with a modest rise of 0.5c to 11c after the release of an updated scoping study on its Figueira project in Brazil. Lynas the local rare earth leader lost 16c to $7.51 and Brazilian Rare Earths was 4c weaker at $2.46.

Other news and market moves of interest included:

  • Buxton, up 0.3c to 6.8c after reporting a thick and rich graphite intersection at its Graphite Bull project in WA which measured 124m at 16.6 total graphite.
  • 29Metals, down 6c to 43c despite reporting reasonable September quarter copper production.
  • Greenvale Energy, up 0.5c to 3.1c after reporting positive results from the tests of Bitumen quality at its Alpha Torbanite project in Queensland.
  • Antipa Minerals, steady at 3.2c after releasing an updated study into its Minyari dome gold project in WA, and
  • Minerals Acquisition down 35c to $18.09 after releasing its September quarter report, which was down on most measures, but which did not sway CG Capital Markets, which see the stock heading up to $22.