Glencore, the London-based mining giant with close Swiss connections, gave coal a boost when it dropped plans to sell or spin-out its extensive interests in the politically incorrect fuel.
That move followed a decision by Glencore boss Gary Nagle that the ESG (environment, social and governance) pendulum had swung too far against the world’s primary energy source.
“The ESG pendulum has swung back over the last nine to 12-months. Shareholders recognise that cash is king,” Nagle said.
The shift at Glencore has global implications but could also open the way for a return of smaller coal stocks as suitable additions to the portfolios of private investors.
Nagle’s rejection of demands from environmentalists and fund managers recognised that ESG investing has become a graveyard for most companies which have found that being politically correct does not equate to business success.
Glencore’s decision to stick with energy coal, used to produce electricity, also acknowledges that alternative sources of electricity, such as wind and solar, are failing to meet the demands of industry and households, clearing the way for broader shift back to coal.
The Glencore move could open a gap between it and the other big miners, including BHP, Rio Tinto and Anglo American, which have dumped energy coal but stuck with steel-making (metallurgical) coal.
Locally, that means smaller specialist coal miners such as Whitehaven, Stanmore and Coronado, should get greater recognition as solid profit earners with share prices which make lithium, nickel and rare earth stocks look like the walking wounded.
Over the past 12-months as lithium miners have crashed and burned (Core is down 84% and Pilbara Minerals down 44%) Whitehaven has risen by 10%, Stanmore is up 23% and Coronado, while down 12%, was earning buy tips this week.
Morgans reckons Coronado will rise by 43% over the next 12-months from $1.29 to $1.85. Goldman Sachs has a $1.80 target. UBS sees $1.95 while Macquarie tops the tipping with a Coronado target price of $2.10 – up a potential 62%.
Gold, as mentioned earlier, was the star in Kalgoorlie at this year’s Diggers and Dealers mining forum which coincided with an alarming financial markets correction caused by share prices getting too far ahead of economic fundamentals.
Calmer trading later in the week saw a cautious return of buyers but the net result was still a 4% downturn of the Australian market as measured by the all ordinaries index.
The outlook is for a continuation of volatile trading until a series of milestones are reached, starting with the commencement of an overdue decline in U.S. interest rates, followed by the U.S. Presidential election in November, and calmer conditions in the Middle East.
At Diggers and Dealers, which is an important showcase for Australia’s small-to-medium mining companies, the mood was more somber than previous recent years with the whiff of panic blowing off the U.S., Japanese, and European markets.
Gold miners, despite optimistic comments at the Kalgoorlie conference, had a poor week, weighed down by the price of metal falling by US$53 an ounce to US$2389/oz as it was drawn into the widespread asset sell-off.
That fall saw local leaders such as Evolution lose 25c to $3.71 and Northern Star drop 24c to $13.50 even as UBS tipped it as a buy after a site visit to the company’s Kalgoorlie Superpit which led to price target for the stock of $16.
Other gold moves and news included De Grey falling by 11c to $1.10. Bellevue shedding 12c to $1.25. Ramelius slipping 11c to $1.80 and Spartan closing yesterday at $1.09, down 14c for the week.
Pilbara Minerals was a lone winner in the lithium sector, just, with a 1c rise to $2.95, a move possibly prompted by news that another producer of the battery metal, Arcadium, is delaying expansion projects, following a trend set by the big U.S. company, Albemarle.
Arcadium paid a heavy price for the slowdown, dropping 43c to $4.17 even as speculation grew that it might be on the receiving end of a takeover bid from Rio Tinto which is keen to expand its lithium exposure.
Macquarie thinks the Arcadium sell-off has been overdone, sticking with a buy tip after the project deferral announcement and a price target of $6.60.
More was expected of Galan Lithium after reports of a possible takeover bid from U.S.-based EnergyX but after a sharp run up to 15c Galan faded to 12c, down 1c for the week,
One-time star Delta Lithium slipped 2c lower to 21c even as interest grew in a gold scoping study at its Mt Ida project in WA which caused much excitement at Bell Potter which sees the stock rising to 75c (up 257%, really?).
Other lithium news included Patriot losing 3c to 45c after reporting a resource upgrade at its unpronounceable Canadian project, Shaakichiuwaanaan, and IGO dropping another 33c to $5.10 despite UBS sticking with a neutral recommendation and price tip of $5.70.
Niobium-exposed stocks, the traders’ favorite metal despite very few knowing anything it, had a poor week despite there being plenty of talk in Kalgoorlie.
WA Resources, which ignited the boom in niobium boom 18-months ago, lost $2.15 over the week to trade at $13.33, taking the stock’s fall over the past six weeks to $7.67 (down 37%).
Other companies with an interest in the steel-hardening metal also lost ground. Dreadnought was 0.2c weaker and 1.6c. Encounter lost 7c to 50c, and Power Minerals was 1.1c lower at 7.9c.
Novonix, a battery technology company, attracted interest after announcing a development agreement with Brazil’s niobium leader CBMM, but also fell on the market, down 8c to 61c.
The hunt for stocks which rose in a tough week led into a number of remote corners of the market including a space which is even more incorrect than coal, war metals, a family which included antimony and tungsten thanks to their uses in armaments.
Rumble Resources crept 0.3c higher to 3.7c this week after reporting a high grade tungsten discovery at its Western Queen project in WA, while Larvotto was up 1c at 14c thanks to growing interest in its Hillgrove gold and antimony project in NSW.
Nickel also produced a winner in Centaurus which added 2c to 38c after reporting an expansion to 1.2 million tonnes of contained nickel metals in its Jaguar project in Brazil.
Other news and market moves in a difficult week, lightened by the Paris gold rush for Australian athletes, included:
- Rare earth leader Lynas dropping 17c to $5.96 despite a stirring presentation from its chief executive Amanda Lacaze in Kalgoorlie.
- St George Mining joining the rare earth rush through the acquisition of a Brazilian project only to lose 1.5c to 2.5c.
- Carnaby reported a new copper discovery at its Greater Duchess project in Queensland with assays up to 2.33% copper over 6 metres but lost 7.5c to 42c.
- Iron ore stocks weakened, led by Fortescue which lost 23c to $18.36 while Fenix was 4.5c weaker at 37c.
- Boss led the uranium sector down with a fall of 47c to $2.91, and
- Manganese miner Jupiter slipped 1.5c lower to 23c despite strong production which failed to offset a weaker price. Macquarie stuck with a buy tip and price target of 37c.