The Australian stock market, as measured by the all ordinaries index, has risen by 5.5% over the last five trading days, a move which looks impressive if not for the fact that the index is still down 6% since Christmas.

Whether the recovery can continue after the four-day Easter break which starts tomorrow is another question because U.S. President Donald Trump is promising to persist with his tariff attacks on friends and enemies.

Critical metals and pharmaceuticals are next on his hit list, risking further destabilisation which one of the world’s top bankers, Jamie Dimon from JP Morgan Chase, reckons will increase the need to be careful.

“I don’t think anyone should assume they have a divine right to success and therefore don’t worry about it,” Dimon told the Financial Times newspaper, adding that it was time for China and the U.S. to start talking about an end to their trade war.

Gold has been the only consistent winner from the dispute, stretching out again this week to a new all-time high of US$3280 an ounce, and A$5168/oz on conversion to Australian dollars, with the local price hit by a fall in the value of the U.S. dollar, which is down against most other major currencies.

Future gold price tipping moved well ahead of the market this week with Goldman Sachs forecasting US$4500/oz should central banks accelerate their gold buying while the U.S. dollar slides. UBS has US$3500/oz as its target, while ANZ sees US$3483/oz, a very precise number which could be closest to where gold is heading.

The reasoning behind ANZ’s gold price is that it represents a logical progression of the real (after inflation) price, which hit an all-time high of US$850/oz in 1980, a price which would today be that magic number of US$3483/oz.

The problem, which older investors can see clearly, is that the upheaval caused by Trump’s attempt to reorganize global trade could have “broken something in the shadows”.

That’s the view of seasoned Macquarie Bank analyst Victor Shvets who is concerned about a possible “Lehmann moment”, a reference to the 2008 collapse of the Lehmann Brothers investment bank, a key event in the early stages of the global financial crisis.

Closer to the gold market was a note from London gold specialist Ross Norman who said that gold was winning on three fronts: falling yields on U.S. Treasury Bonds, fading confidence in U.S. assets, and the continued central bank gold buying.

“It is said the gold price, as the sum of all fears, says some fundamental things about the state of world affairs, and just now it is distinctly sounding a warning,” Norman wrote.

The return of Bellevue Gold was a local highlight with the company successfully raising $156.5 million to close out its hedge book, boost its balance sheet and de-risk mining operations, a complex maneuver which saw the stock re-start trading at 90c (down on the pre-suspension price of $1.15, and then move up steadily to last sales at 94c.

Other gold news and moves of interest included:

  • Greatland Gold, the locally managed but London-listed owner of the Telfer project, rose by 2.66 pence to 13.36p after releasing an updated ore reserves report. The stock started the year at 6p.
  • Genesis Minerals added 59c to $4.40 after releasing a strong March quarter report which highlighted a $111 million increase in cash to $348 million, a potent reminder of the profits flowing from the current high gold price.
  • Evolution Mining rose by $1.53 to $8.49 after its quarterly revealed a $141 million increase in cash to $661 million. Morgans reckons the share price has moved too far too quickly, sticking with a neutral rating and share price target of $8. Macquarie went lower with price target of $6.30, while Morgan Stanley won the low-ball prize with a forecast of Evolution dropping to $5.55.
  • Koonenberry Gold added 2.1c (50%) to 6.3c after releasing encouraging drill results from its Enmore project in NSW which included a 172.9 metre intersection assaying 2.07 grams a tonne from a depth of 171m.
  • Northern Star stretched out its lead over the rest of the gold sector with a rise this week of $2.15 to $2310. It was trading at $15.45 in January.
  • Southern Cross Gold put on 68c to $5.26. Shaw and Partners refreshed a buy tip and price target of $6.03, and
  • Antipa Minerals announced the start of dry season drilling on its Paterson Range projects in WA, adding 9c to 52c in anticipation of good news.

Copper stocks rallied with the price of their metal, which clawed up US50c a pound from its Trump trauma to trade to US$4.59/lb.

Prospect Resources was the pick of the copper sector with a rise of 4c (36%) to 15c after announcing a deal with Canada’s First Quantum Minerals, which bought a 15% stake in Prospect, which owns the promising Mumbezhi copper prospect in Zambia.

Southern Hemisphere Mining added 1c to 3.1c after announcing promising geophysical survey results from its Llahuin project in Chile, and Aurelia Metals rose by 3.7c to 25c after announcing board approval for the development of the Greater Cobar project in NSW.

Rare earth stocks reacted positively to news of China’s ban on the export of some of the critical metals to the U.S. Lynas led the way up with a rise of 62c to $8.45, significantly higher than the target prices of leading investment banks, an interesting example of how geopolitics have muddied the mining waters.

Morgan Stanley, for example, sees Lynas topping out at $7. Macquarie has a target price of $7.30 while Bell Potter has $6.50. Citi is sticking with a two-month old price of $5.50.

Other rare earth news included St George adding 0.8c to 2.5c after releasing an upbeat report on its Araxa project in Brazil, and Meteoric rising by 2.6c to 9.6c after reporting an expansion of the resource base at its Barrra do Pacu project also in Brazil.

Iron ore produced three surprises this week. Firstly, the price continued to rise despite tariff turmoil, sitting just above US$100 a tonne, a price which could also be reflecting the continued fall in the value of the U.S. dollar which has dropped by 9% this year when measured by the DXY index with confidence in the currency at its lowest since 2006.

The second surprise was 12c fall by Fortescue Metals to $15.05 even as the iron ore price edged higher while the biggest surprise was a $1.10 increase by Mineral Securities to $17.23 despite ongoing reports of operational and boardroom issues.

Pick of the iron ore crop was rarely mentioned Mindax which jumped by 2.8c (45%) to 9c after announcing the acquisition of a 5% interest in unlisted Cashmere Iron which owns the billion tonnes Cashmere hematite and magnetite project in WA’s mid-west region.

Other news and market moves of interest this week included:

  • Ardea Resources rising by 5c to 44c after announcing a $4.6 million capital injection from Sumitomo its Japanese partner in the Goongarrie nickel project near Kalgoorlie in WA.
  • Talga adding by 3c to 43c after reporting that its Lulea battery anode graphite project in Sweden had been designated a net zero strategic project by the European Union.
  • Boss Energy slipping 7c lower to $2.51 as the uranium market remained under pressure while Citi tipped it as a buy with a price target of $3.30.
  • Alpha HPA easing back by 1c to 71c despite growing interest in its alumina project and a Bell Potter research report which tipped a future share price for the stock of $2, and
  • Sunrise Energy Metals jumping 41c (136%) higher to 71c after receipt of high-grade scandium assays from its Syerston project in NSW, a move immediately followed by a trading suspension ahead of a capital raising announcement.