After sagging close to the psychologically-important mark of US$1800 an ounce, the gold price bounced back to around US1834/oz, helping most local producers end with modest share price increases.

Evolution Mining led the way among the gold majors with a rise of 11c to $2.92, aided by encouraging exploration news from its Ernest Henry copper/gold mine in Queensland, while Northern Star rose by 43c to $10.96.

Other gold moves included Bellevue, up 14c to $1.13. Gold Road, up 11c to $1.53. Kingsgate, up 3c to $1.57 and Perseus, up 24c to $2.15.

Promising gold moves failed to overcome concern that the Australian Government has set its sights on extracting a bigger share of investor savings through changes to superannuation tax rates and speculation of the introduction of a capital gains tax on profits made when selling the family home.

The Prime Minister, Anthony Albanese, strongly denied reports of a home profits tax but his Treasurer, Jim Chalmers, was less convincing and appears to have been quietly working on the concept.

Australia is not alone in facing the prospect of tax increases with most governments around the world looking for ways to claw back the generous support provided during the Covid years.

The challenge for investors is to recognise that the combination of higher taxes and higher interest rates is not conducive to higher share prices.

Good news was hard to find in most segments of the stock market. Even battery metals, the go-to favourite of the past 12-months, came in for selling, perhaps influence by the weakening lithium price which has dropped by 35% in China over the last three months.

Allkem and Argosy swam against an outgoing lithium tide. Allkem added 48c to $12.09 thanks to its strong December half profit and a bullish research note from CG Capital Markets which reckons the stock will hit $19.80 over the next 12-months. Argosy put on 1.5c to 74c after releasing an update on its Rincon project in Argentina.

Pilbara Minerals lost 26c to $4.07 after announcing that it had secured a debt facility to help meet the cost of a lithium chemicals plant in Korea.

Core Lithium was 3c weaker at 94c despite reporting the production of first spodumene at its Finniss project in the Northern Territory, and Red Dirt was 3c weaker at 38c despite reporting encouraging assays from drilling at its Yinnetharra project in WA.

Copper firmed after dipping below US$4 a pound to trade at US$4.15/lb though the recovery was not enough to save local copper miners from slipping lower.

Aeris Resources fell a hefty 13c to 64c after reporting a poor December half result and despite an optimistic research note from Bell Potter which reckons it can rise to 92c, while Hillgrove failed to impress with its latest exploration results from extensional drilling at its Kanmantoo mine near Adelaide, dropping by 1.3c (20%) to 5.5c.

Sandfire was also in the copper firing line, shedding 40c to $6.06 despite delivering a well-received half-year result in what was a transitional period from the De Grussa mine in WA to the Matsa assets in Spain and the Motheo project in Botswana. Morgan Stanley retained a buy tip on the stock and a price forecast of $6.85.

Titanium minerals miners were in the news this week but failed to deliver the price rises which might have reasonably been expected with events that included:

  • Recently relisted Sierra Rutile adding 1.5c to 24c after reporting a strong increase in profit to $75.6 million for the year to December 31.
  • Strandline rose by 2.5c to 39c after reporting its third shipment of heavy mineral concentrate since starting production at its Coburn project in WA, and
  • Sheffield Resources lost 9c to 52c after announcing a $30 capital raising to fund and expansion in Brazil even as it puts the finishing touches to its Thunderbird project in WA.

Iron ore miners have been put on alert by analysts from Citi, an investment bank, that the “sweet spot” currently being enjoyed was “not likely to be sustained” as supply normalises and demand slips.

“Iron ore is in a definite sweet spot right now,” Citi said, before adding that the price of ore had outpaced scrap in recent months which meant scrap was cheaper than iron ore which could see Chinese blast furnace operators switch to scrap.

Fortescue Metals Group shook off Citi’s warning with a 40c rise to $23. while smaller iron ore miners were less successful with Fenix down 2c to 25c.

Rare earth stocks also ran out of steam after a few excellent weeks, led by Lynas which eased back by 55c to $7.88 amid growing apprehension about its ongoing rights to operate a processing plant in Malaysia.

WA1 Resources fell steeply early in the week before a strong recovery which followed news that it plans to restart field work at its promising West Arunta project in central Australia. The stock ended the week up 16c at $1.44.

The uranium price eased during the week but several U-stocks gained ground including Boss Energy which rose by 30c to $2.60 and Paladin crept 1c higher to 72c.

Other news and market moves in included:

  • Alkane Resources reporting an initial resource of 4.7 million ounces of gold equivalent (gold + copper) at its Kaiser project near Molong in NSW, helping lift the stock by 10c to 73c.
  • Black Cat Syndicate reported fresh assays from drilling at its Paulsens project in WA, including 2 metres at 39.9 grams of gold a tonne from a depth of 18.75m. On the market, the stocks rose by 2c to 39c.
  • Tin, one of last year’s star commodities, could be in for further falls as supply picks up from mines in Indonesia and Peru. Citi, in a research note, tipped a fall from US$26,000 a tonne to US$24,000/t, rubbing another 0.5c off the price of Elementos which eased back to 27c, taking the fall over the last month to 5c, and
  • Galileo Mining reported its highest yet palladium and platinum results from drilling at its Norseman project in WA with a best hit of 1m at 11.23g/t 3E (combined palladium, platinum and gold), but lost 3c to close at 73c.