Shares in Chalice have lost more than 41% this month after the company released a poorly received scoping study for its Gonneville nickel-copper-palladium deposit, north of Perth.
The day after the study was released, Goyder started buying and has been picking up shares almost daily ever since.
His biggest purchases came late last week when he paid $12.3 million for 400,000 shares on Thursday and $10.5 million for 3.38 million shares on Friday.
All up, Goyder has spent $31.7 million on Chalice shares since August 30.
The buying spree has taken his stake in the company from 8.8% to 10.43%.
Prior to the latest purchases, Goyder’s most recent activity was the sale of roughly $2 million worth of Chalice shares in June.
Goyder is the company’s largest shareholder behind Goldman Sachs.
Third-largest shareholder BlackRock has also increased its stake in Chalice this week from 5.28% to 6.37%.
Chalice chairman Derek La Ferla and director Morgan Ball also bought shares on market last week.
Scoping study
The market savaged Chalice’s scoping study due to high capital intensity, high metal price assumptions for palladium and low recoveries.
Analysts were swift to downgrade the stock.
Jefferies analyst Mitch Ryan cut his recommendation from hold to underperform, reducing his price target from $6.50 to $2, describing the economics as “unattractive”.
Morgans analyst Adrian Prendergast downgraded the stock from add to hold, cutting his price target from $8.20 to $3.45, after describing the scoping study numbers as “jarring”.
“The key question is where can Gonneville get to from here, but it is a more challenging path than we expected,” he said.
“We still see potential for Gonneville to become a tier one asset but want to see it in the numbers before we gain conviction.”
Bell Potter Securities analyst David Coates was more optimistic, retaining a speculative buy and lowering his price target by 29% to $7.10.
“We argue that Gonneville is competitive as a long-life, low-cost asset which also carries value as a globally significant, strategically valuable, palladium dominant, critical minerals project,” he said.
“We argue its position on the cost curve is more important to assessing long-term profit margins than current spot prices.
“We find that its investment metrics compare favourably with the largest base metals projects recently approved for development in Australia: OZ Minerals’ West Musgrave and Carrapateena projects.”
The analysts agreed the strategic partnering process underway could be a catalyst for the stock.
A prefeasibility study will be completed by mid-2025, followed by a final investment decision in 2026 and first production potentially in 2029.
